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macro

The American Oil Paradox

The United States produces more crude oil than any country in history. It is a net petroleum exporter. It is also structurally incapable of replacing Gulf supply for Asia. All three statements are simultaneously true.

Apr 222 min read
signals · Mar 25

The Crowd Is Right. And Wrong.

signals · Mar 25

The Algorithm Wall Street Missed

macro · Mar 23

The Crowd Knew Before the Bombs Fell

onchain · Mar 20

Friday Market Brief - Focus on BTC

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macroMar 1614m

Market Color — Mar 16, 2026: FOMC Eve

BTC breaks $73k on a spot-driven move. ETH surges +5.8%. Prediction markets price Miran FOMC dissent at 99%. HYPE funding deepens to -0.0056%. The stage is set for tomorrow's statement.

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signalsMar 168m

Introducing Impact Market: A New Framework for Crypto Intelligence

Prediction markets, on-chain options, and order flow have converged into a single signal layer. Impact Market is our framework for reading it. Today, we open the beta.

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Mar 16
8m

Bitcoin Market Color — Polymarket · Mar 16, 2026

Live prediction market probabilities across 30+ active BTC markets with $25M+ total volume. The crowd puts a ~57% chance BTC stays below $100k at year-end while pricing a 68% chance of another dip to $55k.

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macroMar 1512m

Market Color — Mar 15, 2026: The Compressed Spring

Live derivatives data from Derive MCP and prediction markets from Polymarket. BTC held $70k while S&P hit 2026 low. Funding rates near-zero. HYPE short squeeze setup. FOMC Mar 17-18 is the catalyst.

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