1-Year On-Chain Overview
Full 12-month on-chain analysis covering March 20, 2025 through March 19, 2026. Six core metrics tracked daily across 366 data points each. BTC price overlay on every chart.
Daily Analysis — 1-Year Context
Cycle peak MVRV Z was 2.90 in Jul. Today: 0.54.
Over the past 12 months the MVRV Z peaked at 2.90 on July 14, 2025 — moderate by historical bull market standards (2017 and 2021 saw 6–8). The Feb 5 crash collapsed it to 0.32, near the zone where long-term holders have historically started aggressive buying. Recovery to 0.54 is measured and healthy. The realized price has climbed steadily from $43.6K (Mar 2025) to $54.4K today, showing that the cost basis of the network is rising — a sign of genuine adoption, not speculative froth.
LTH supply tells the full year story in one arc
The 1-year LTH supply chart is a masterclass in cycle dynamics. It started at 13.95M BTC (Mar 2025), climbed to a peak of 14.85M in July 2025 during the ATH run, then distributed back down to 14.43M by Feb 5, 2026 as the crash forced capitulation. Since then it has recovered to 14.57M — steady re-accumulation. The net result: LTH holders added ~620K BTC over the year. They are not fearful. They are buying.
Price is −43% from the Aug ATH. That context matters.
Bitcoin hit $123,313 on August 13, 2025 — the highest price ever recorded on-chain. Today’s $69,923 represents a 43.3% drawdown from that peak. This isn’t unusual in Bitcoin cycles — the 2021 cycle saw −56% drawdowns mid-bull — but it reframes current recovery attempts. The $84–87K range from March 2025 is now the first structural resistance, then the $96–97K Jan 2026 local high. Getting back to ATH requires a sustained +76% move from here. That’s a multi-month endeavor, not a week.
NUPL fell from 0.59 (Jul peak) to 0.12 (Feb crash)
The 1-year NUPL journey is striking. Starting at 0.48 in March 2025 (Optimism/Anxiety zone), it climbed to 0.59 in late July — near the Belief/Denial zone that historically precedes distribution. The descent was steep: 0.12 on Feb 5, barely above the Capitulation threshold of 0. The recovery to 0.22 today is real but fragile. The market needs NUPL to break and hold above 0.25 (Optimism) to confirm a structural shift. It attempted this on March 4 (0.25) and retreated. The zone is a wall.
SOPR: a year of mostly profit, now loss
For the bulk of 2025, SOPR ran consistently above 1.0 — coins were being spent in profit. The Apr 6–8 tariff shock and the Aug–Sep period were brief exceptions. The turn came in late January 2026 as price broke down from the $86–96K range. SOPR dipped to 0.96 on Feb 5, its lowest reading of the year. Since then it has oscillated near 1.0, often dipping below. The read: the market is in a loss-realization regime where every bounce gets sold by underwater holders. A sustained return to >1.0 SOPR is the key confirmation signal for trend resumption.
SSR collapsed from 10.49 (Jul peak) to 4.81 (Feb 5)
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio tells a dramatic liquidity story over the year. Starting at 8.08 in March 2025, it rose to 10.49 in late July as Bitcoin’s market cap swelled relative to stablecoin supply. The crash demolished it: 4.81 on Feb 5 as stablecoins were deployed en masse to buy the dip. Today’s 5.21 represents partial recovery but confirms that significant buying power has already been deployed. The stablecoin wall is thinner than it was 6 months ago. Fresh capital inflows — not recycled stablecoins — will be needed to sustain a meaningful rally.
On-Chain Charts — 1 Year (Mar 20 2025 → Mar 19 2026)
Data: Glassnode · On-chain metrics only · Not financial advice · March 20, 2026