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PolymarketBTC Prediction Market Overview
Live prediction market probabilities across 30+ active BTC markets with $25M+ total volume. This report maps how Polymarket participants are pricing Bitcoin's year-end distribution — upside targets, downside risks, and the monthly seasonality bet.
Reach $100k by EOY42.5%vol24h $20.9k
Reach $200k by EOY5.0%vol24h $11.8k
Dip to $55k by EOY68.0%vol24h $49.6k — highest
Total event volume$25.1M$326k vol in last 24h
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PolymarketUpside Targets — Probability of Reaching by Dec 31, 2026
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
93.6%
80.5%
56.5%
42.5%
29.5%
22%
16.5%
11.5%
9.5%
7.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5%
4.5%
2.5%
1.7%
Strong (≥40%)Moderate (20–40%)Low (<20%)
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PolymarketDownside Risk — Probability of Dipping To by EOY
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
68%
57.5%
44.5%
34.5%
24.5%
17.5%
14.5%
10.5%
6.9%
5.1%
4.2%
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PolymarketBest Month for BTC in 2026
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1.8%
7%
5.5%
7.5%
9%
10%
9.5%
10.5%
16.5%
14.5%
16.5%
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Market Read
Market read: The crowd puts a ~57% chance BTC stays below $100k at year-end while simultaneously pricing a 68% chance of another dip to $55k — implying significant volatility expectations in both directions. The $55k dip market is the single most actively traded contract (vol24h $49.6k). On the upside, Q4 is favored for the biggest monthly move, with October, November, and December collectively capturing ~48% of “best month” probability, echoing Bitcoin's historical Q4 seasonality. February has already resolved No, concentrating remaining probability across the 10 remaining months.
Source: Polymarket prediction markets · Data as of March 16, 2026 · Not financial advice · Built with live MCP data